Categories: ExcessIndia

India Excess Pandemic Deaths Estimated at 4 Million

A new set of reports of excess mortality estimates for India from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021.

1. extrapolation of state-level civil registration from seven states suggests 3.4 million excess deaths.
2. applying international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data implies a higher toll of around 4 million.
3. An analysis of the Consumer Pyramid Household Survey, a longitudinal panel of over 800,000 individuals across all states, yields an estimate of 4.9 million excess deaths.

Each of these estimates has shortcomings and they also diverge in the pattern of deaths between the two waves of the pandemic. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest that the death toll from the pandemic is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count of 400,000; they also suggest that the first wave was more lethal than is believed. Understanding and engaging with the data-based estimates is necessary because in this horrific tragedy the counting and the attendant accountability—will count for now but also the future.

Three New Estimates of India’s AllCause Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Abhishek Anand, Justin Sandefur, and Arvind Subramanian

Anand, Abhishek; Justin Sandefur; and Arvind Subramanian, 2021. “Three New Estimates of India’s All-Cause Excess Mortality
during the COVID-19 Pandemic.” CGD Working Paper 589. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development. https://cgdev.
org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic

They provide code and workbooks to replicate all their calculations here: https://cgdev.org/sites/default/files/anand-et-al-2021-
india-excess-mortality-replication-files.zip. The CPHS microdata are available by subscription from CMIE. More information on
CGD’s research data and code disclosure policy can be found here: www.cgdev.org/page/research-data-and-code-disclosure

Sources: Center for Global Development
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

Read More

News Bot

Share
Published by
News Bot
Tags: ExcessIndia

Recent Posts

With moratorium lifting, can US avoid avalanche of evictions?

With the federal eviction moratorium expiring this weekend, tenants and housing advocates are braced. Just…

20 mins ago

Safe passage: More Afghan aides relocated to U.S.

Washington The first flight evacuating Afghans who worked alongside Americans in Afghanistan brought more than…

20 mins ago

‘I need to vote.’ Why more Asian Americans are staking a political claim.

Voter turnout by Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders increased in the 2020 election more than…

20 mins ago

How to Make Your Amazon Echo Listen for Specific Sounds

AmazonAmong its 100,000+ skills, Alexa includes a Sound Detection feature, which allows it to listen…

21 mins ago

What Are Docker Volumes, and How Do You Use Them?

Oct 23, 2020, 8:00 am EDT | 3 min read By default, Docker containers are…

21 mins ago

The ISS is Now Stable After Docked Russian Module Unexpectedly Fired Thrusters

News @yeah_books Jul 30, 2021, 2:30 pm EDT | 1 min read NASARussia’s “Nauka” Multipurpose…

21 mins ago